(Updated version 8/16/22)
Bull thesis:
The bull thesis on KPTI remains that the stock trades at a discount for a company with a promising cancer therapeutic that is approved for several indications. This drug is a relatively recently approved anti-cancer agent with a novel mechanism of action that is now approved as a 2nd line treatment in a major cancer (multiple myeloma). With over $125M revenue this year, XPOVIO revenue is not horrible for its 3rd year. Plus, data in MDS shows some progress. Most promising long term, is the data in endometrial cancer, which suggests that in the coming years, XPOVIO might be a major solid tumor therapy with a new mechanism of action for a significant genetically defined subpopulation (wild type P53). This is supported by strong early clinical data.
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BULL THESIS (Company)
KPTI overall corporate and summary
Cash runway into early 2024
Value Play - Current enterprise value is very attractive at less than $1B (~8x 2022 guidance)
Interesting acquisition target, esp. If
Can grow blood cancer/rare disease revenue
establish solid tumor indication
BULL THESIS
(XPOVIO) (Selinexor)
Approved blood cancer drug with unique mechanism of action (SINE)
multiple myeloma and r/r DLBCL (in combo w/ Velcade & dex)
Revenue growth since 2nd line MM approval in Q1 2021 (+27% y/y)
2021 product rev ~$100M; with 2022 guidance $120-$130M (~27% growth)
Proof of concept Ph3 data for XPOVIO in solid tumor (i.e. endometrial) for wtP53 patients (Feb ‘22)
Additional blood disorder trials would expand market opportunity
Endometrial cancer
Opportunity for maintenance therapy post front-line chemo
Currently no approved drugs
Positive Ph3 study, especially in wtP53 patients (prespecified subgroup)
wtP53 (n=103): HR 0.38; p=0.0006.PFS of 13.7 months vs, 3.7 months for placebo with a HR of 0.38 (p=0.0006),
Positive results in this indication provide very valuable proof of concept that XPOVIO could be a useful drug for solid tumors
Greatly expands market potential
Myelofibrosis
No other class of drugs is approved in ruxolitinib-refractory MF and has a poor prognosis (median survival of ~14 months)
Positive Ph 2 proof of concept efficacy data presented at ASCO ‘22
Eltanexor
Next-gen SINE
Better tolerability than Selenexor
MDS
Ph 1/2 trial under way
Potential to improve survival
Survival in HMA-refractory disease is 4-6 months
Single-agent eltanexor - mean OS of 9.9 months with overall response of 53% in MDS Ph 1 trial (Presented at EHA ‘21)
This article is not investment or legal advice.
MV 8/16/22
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