Summary
Over 40 Smid-Cap companies currently have active trials involving COVID therapeutics (this includes small molecules and biologics)
These stocks have been very volatile in 2021 thus far, and will likely remain that way for most of the year
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Given the ongoing prevalence of COVID in the world, the disease is likely to be a major healthcare concern for some years to come. A key for the value of this market will be how much of the developed world’s population is vaccinated. Currently, it appears that a significant portion (at least 37%) of the U.S. adult population will remain unvaccinated (~38% of the U.S. adult population has NOT received a single dose and ~49% is NOT fully vaccinated) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations. Furthermore, current variants, especially the delta variant, and continuing development of new variants, could increase the prevalence and severity of COVID in the coming months/years. Thus, many smid-cap companies continue to focus on developing COVID therapeutics.
Over 50 companies have focused on COVID therapeutics as part of their pipeline (Table 1). Some of these companies have initiated trials of new assets while others have tested the ability of assets already in their pipeline to treat COVID. While there have been a handful of trials discontinued, over 40 companies still have ongoing trials. These COVID therapeutics stocks have been quite volatile thus far in 2021 (Table 1) and will likely stay that way as the pandemic ebbs and flows in the coming year(s). Most of these stocks that were publicly traded at the beginning of 2021 have moved more than 20% this year.
ACRS is the biggest gainer of the group, up over 175% this year. It is a bit surprising that the only smid-cap company to have an emergency use authorized (EUA) covid therapeutic, as of 6/22/21, ABCL, is down about 44% this year as of this date. However, ABCL is an antibody discovery company that went public late last year in what currently appears to be an over-hyped/priced IPO, and derives only a small amount of royalty revenue from BamlanivimabLY-CoV555, the antibody that it discovered and then partnered with Lilly. Lilly then rapidly developed it into an EUA therapeutic (see our Bamlanivimab IQ card). Bamlanivimab alone or together with other antibodies is authorized in 20 countries for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in high-risk patients (See ABCL corporate presentation slide 13). To try to tackle variants, bamlanivimab has been evaluated in clinical trials with etesevimab and VIR7831 (Id. at slide 14). ABCL has also developed LY-COV1404, which it claims neutralizes all currently circulating variants and can be delivered subcutaneously (See press release).
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Table 1. Covid Therapeutic Candidates for Biotech Companies*
*Biotech companies with valuations between $100M and $5B
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